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国际著名投资大师罗杰斯日前预测，英镑有可能在未来几周崩溃，而英国政府可以做的不多。同时，罗杰斯一针见血地指出，英国的崩溃将源自英镑。

　　被戏称为“欧猪”四国(PIGS，包括葡萄牙、爱尔兰、希腊、西班)之一的希腊，其债务危机已经让欧盟头痛不已，而近期连连贬值的英镑更是雪上加霜。据悉，目前英国政府的负债规模几乎相当于PIGS债务的总额,数据显示,截至今年1月底,英国政府的公共债务总计8485亿英镑,占GDP的60%,英国因此面临着3A评级被下调的风险。

　　花旗银行(Citibank)分析师MichaelHart表示，一旦英国AAA的主权债信评级遭受下调的威胁，英国国债收益率将大幅攀升，英国财政秩序也将失控。另外，若英国大选后，出现政党轮替，英国财政状况或将继续恶化，最终将导致英国丧失AAA主权债信评级。

　　“现在来看，不需要评级下调，就足以达到英镑贬值的一些效应了。而如果真的出现评级下调，其影响就不仅仅限于英国或欧洲，而是会在世界范围都有影响。”对外经济贸易大学丁志杰教授这样判断。

　　此外，招商银行分析师刘东亮指出,之前英国公布的1月份零售数据很差,表明英国有可能在一季度再次陷入衰退。

　　如果说财政赤字尚可通过财政和货币政策加以调节,那么掺杂进汇率和政治因素后的政策选择就让英国政府更加为难。大选之年，英镑面临基本面不佳以及政局不确定性的利空。英国去年第四季度GDP季率上升0.3%,比初值0.1%大幅上升,但分析人士指出,英国经济增长大部分来自政府支出。英国央行的几位官员在近期的讲话中也暗示了英国央行保留了继续扩大资产购买规模的空间。已经外债累累而本币又不断贬值削弱偿债能力的日不落帝国并未放弃“拆东墙补西墙”的做法。

　　“从欧洲来看，事实上它也是乐见英镑的贬值，我们看到，希腊的债务揭开了欧洲经济存在的一些问题，目前来看欧洲的经济比美国还要差。欧元和英镑的贬值对欧洲经济的恢复来说是有意义的。去年8月份我去英国的时候，英国人说得最多的就是英国人聪明之处就是让英镑贬值了。目前来看，包括欧元区在内的欧盟和英国有共同市场层面的因素，但也不排除利益集团或政府利用一些因素，导致市场向某个方向发展。”丁志杰如是说。

　　丁志杰解释道：“从长远看来，2009年上半年东欧国家主要是外债问题，去年年底希腊的问题主要是财政赤字，这是由于金融危机中各国采取了经济刺激政策，非常有意义的一点是，在2008年底到2009年一季度，在东欧危机中，美元不断走强，此次也看到在希腊危机中，很多问题浮出水面，同样也是美元走强，这不仅仅是个巧合。另外，在年初，美元的走强，而欧元、英镑却贬值。这对美国和欧洲双方是有好处的。去年年底迪拜危机，可能是美元反弹的起点。”

　　“危机以来外汇市场的动荡不定，大起大落与市场信心脆弱有关，经济危机造成的赤字，这个可能会轮流转，现在是在欧洲，可能四五月份就转到美国，促成美元贬值。和上世纪70年代外汇市场动荡不定和投机造成由固定汇率转向浮动汇率，让大家意识到目前浮动汇率存在很多缺陷，包括投机行为造成汇率波动形成经济不稳定效应，也不排除一些国家从自身利益需要，引导市场向自己有利的方向发展，换句话说就是操纵市场的行为，所以人们越来越清楚地看到了全球货币市场需要改革，但目前还看不到成为现实的可能。”丁志杰说。

　　尽管英镑连连贬值让英国面临步希腊后尘的危机，但对于人民币来说，这种现象未尝不是个好消息。“人民币的升值压力从去年开始升温，在美元的作用下，人民币对欧元和日元都有不同程度升值，而现在英镑的贬值在一定程度上可能会缓解人民币升值的压力。”丁志杰表示。这种国际市场的动荡不定更应该让中国注意到汇率稳定的重要性，我们更应该注重让汇率在均衡合理的水平上保持汇率稳定。汇率改革的方向是市场化，但也要有汇率的稳定机制。

[G翻译]

Internationally renowned Jim Rogers recently predicted that sterling may collapse in the coming weeks, while the British Government could not do much. At the same time, Rogers pointed out sharply that will be derived from the collapse of the British pound.

Has been dubbed the "European pig" the four countries (PIGS, including Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain), one of Greece, its debt crisis has been a headache for the EU and with the recent devaluation of the pound again and again even worse. It is reported that the size of the British Government's debt is almost equal to the total amount of debt PIGS, the data show that as of this year's By the end of January, the British Government's public debt totaled 848.5 billion pounds, accounting for GDP, 60 percent, the United Kingdom, therefore facing the risk of 3A rating is downgraded.

Citibank (Citibank) analyst MichaelHart said that once the British AAA sovereign debt rating the threat of being cut, the British bond yields will be substantially higher, the United Kingdom's finances in order will also be out of control. In addition, if the United Kingdom after the elections, there rotation of political parties, the United Kingdom or the financial situation continued to deteriorate, ultimately leading to the loss of British AAA sovereign credit rating.

"Now look, do not downgrade, it is sufficient to achieve some of the effects of the devaluation of the pound. But if there is downgraded, its impact is not limited to the United Kingdom or Europe, but will have an impact in the world." External Economic and Trade University, Professor Ding Zhijie such judgments.

In addition, China Merchants Bank analyst Dong-Liang Liu pointed out that before the United Kingdom announced in January retail sales data is poor, that it seems possible that in the first quarter once again into a recession.

If the fiscal deficit can still be adopted by financial Governance and monetary policy to be adjusted, then the doped and political factors into the exchange rate policy options let the British Government to be more difficult. Election year, the pound facing poor fundamentals, as well as political uncertainty bad. England quarter of last year's rate of GDP in the fourth quarter rose by 0.3%, compared with 0.1% initial sharp rise, but analysts have pointed out that British economic growth, mostly from government expenditure. Several officials of the Bank of England in a recent speech, also hinted at the Bank of England retained to continue to expand the size of the space asset purchase. The external debt burden which has been the continuous depreciation of the currency they are not undermine the solvency of the Japanese empire did not abandon the "拆东墙补西墙 "Approach.

"From the European point of view, the fact that it is also pleased to see the depreciation of sterling, we see that Greece's debt has opened a number of problems in the European economy, the current situation in Europe is even worse than the U.S. economy. The depreciation of the euro and sterling economic recovery in Europe is significant. I went to Britain in August last year, when the British put it up is the British people is that it is smart to pound depreciated. current situation, including the euro area, including the European Union and the United Kingdom have a common market level factors, but does not rule out interest groups or government to use some factors that lead to market In a certain direction. "Ding Zhijie says.

Ding Zhijie, explains: "In the long run, the first half of 2009 the external debt problems are mainly Eastern European countries late last year, Greece's main problem is the fiscal deficit, which is due to the financial crisis in the States to adopt an economic stimulus policies, a very interesting point is that , at the end of 2008 to 2009, a quarter of the crisis in Eastern Europe, the dollar continued strength, this is also seen in the Greek crisis, many problems surfaced, it is also a stronger dollar, this is not just a coincidence. In addition, at the beginning of , the dollar's strength, while the The euro, the pound was devalued. This is the United States and Europe, both are beneficial. Dubai late last year, the crisis may be the starting point for the dollar's rally. "

"Since the crisis, the foreign exchange market volatility, ups and downs and the fragile market confidence related to the economic crisis caused by the deficit, this may be to turn, and is now in Europe, may be copies of the newly settled to the United States, contributed to the dollar. And 70s of last century the foreign exchange market volatility and speculation caused by the fixed exchange rate floating exchange rate shift, so that everyone realized that the current floating exchange rate, there are many shortcomings, including the speculation caused by exchange rate fluctuations, Dynamic effects of the formation of economic instability, does not rule out a number of countries from their own needs, to guide the market to their own favorable direction, in other words, market manipulation, it is becoming increasingly clear that the need to reform the global currency markets, but as yet do not see a real possibility. , "Said Ding Zhijie.

Despite the devaluation of the British pound repeatedly followed the crisis faced by the Greek-step, but for the yuan, this phenomenon might well be good news. "RMB appreciation pressure since last year, heating up the role of the U.S. dollar, the yuan against the euro and the yen are not The same degree of appreciation, and now the depreciation of sterling to a certain extent, may ease RMB appreciation pressure. , "Said Ding Zhijie. That the volatility of international markets, but it should be noted that in China the importance of a stable exchange rate, we should pay attention to let the exchange rate at a reasonable level of equilibrium exchange rate stability. The exchange rate reform is market-oriented, but it should also there is exchange rate stability mechanism.

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